Who will win the senate?, Madana Kloss 4th
Like the steam-powered printing press, airplanes, and televised debates, computers have altered the election process. Today's computer-aided political forecasting allows politicians to determine where to campaign and how they compare to their competitors. They also potentially allows citizens to make more informed decisions.
The data shown in The New York Times's news graphic is very interesting; I find one aspect particularly striking, namely the probability trend at the top of the page. It reminds me of an inevitability vs. time graph. Here the distance between the red and blue lines may be thought of as the certainty, or inevitability, of one party or another controlling the senate. There appears to be a point in mid-September where the probability of the Republicans controlling the Senate starts steadily climbing towards 100%. While these graphics may be interesting to look at, I still wonder how this information might be helpful to the average citizen. I personally, would not vote for the party that seems will win. I would think that that would then enable more people to be encouraged to vote for the losing party. This can be because then there would be more advertisement for the party and then convince more people to vote for the losing party. while the Winning party based on the graphs would then feel like they have a sure win and not try as much any more. But i agree with how they would think that the majority would just follow the group, that is common. but i think thsi would also be a possible response
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