Virtual Tie Between Clinton and Sanders - Emily Rosuck 4th

The winner of Iowa’s Democratic caucuses remains a mystery. But it’s not clear that it matters anymore.

As of 12:30 a.m., with only a handful of counties still reporting results, Hillary Clinton held a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders, 674 “state delegate equivalents” to 670. That tiny difference means that both candidates will likely leave Iowa with the same number of delegates for the national convention.Sanders, speaking to his supporters, called the results a “virtual tie.” He was right. 

The good news for Clinton is that she’s likely to do better in the future. Few states play to Sanders’ political strength the way that Iowa does. So far, Sanders has drawn most of his support from white voters and from liberals, two groups that Iowa has in wildly disproportionate numbers. Iowa is also a small state, and, because it is the nation’s first contest, allows candidates to court voters in small, personal settings -- where Sanders excels.

Those advantages will fade after next week, once the nomination campaign moves beyond New Hampshire, a state that offers Sanders similar advantages, and into states where the voters will tend to be less white and less liberal. The calendar will also bring primaries in larger states, like Florida and Michigan, not to mention primaries in multiple states happening on the same day. In those contests, Sanders won’t be able to win voters one at a time.

Sanders obviously offered Iowa Democrats something that they were not getting from Clinton. That was true 24 hours ago, before the caucuses took place. It’s just as true now, regardless of what those final vote tallies show.


http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/new-hampshire-primary-2016/index.html